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Weekly Morguard Research Newsletter

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2020 Annual Economic Outlook​​

The 2020 Canada Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report from Morguard predicts a positive outlook for commercial real estate assets in the multi-suite residential, industrial and office categories. The retail segment will remain resilient as it continues to adapt to shifts in consumer spending habits and e-commerce. In 2019, investors continued to place capital into commercial assets as Canada’s economy continued to expand, despite the global trade dispute and challenges in the oil and gas sector that impacted domestic business confidence. Commercial real estate, as one of the most attractive and stable long-term investments in 2019, will continue to attract interest from investors in 2020 with positive rental demand patterns. The report is published yearly with quarterly updates and is developed based on our experience in property management, Canadian REITs and property investment.

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2019 U.S. Economic Outlook & Multi-Suite Residential Rental Market Fundamentals

The U.S. multi-suite residential rental property market is projected to continue producing solid returns for investors into the coming year, according to the inaugural edition of Morguard’s U.S. Economic Outlook & Multi-Suite Residential Rental Market Fundamentals Report. The new U.S.-focused report features national and regional trends for multi-suite residential rental properties, as well as a forecast of the sector’s expected near-term performance. 

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Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Reports


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2020 Q1 Update - Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted all areas of the commercial real estate industry in the first quarter of 2020 according to Morguard’s first quarter Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Research report. Investor confidence and sales were both impacted due to global trade effectively coming to a halt and “non-essential” businesses closing because of the spread of the virus. The strength of the industrial leasing sector continued in the first quarter with the national vacancy rate only slightly above the record-low of a year ago, though the near-term outlook will be impacted. What the road to recovery will look like and how long the industry will feel the effects of COVID-19 are the longer-term questions to consider.

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2019 Q4 Update - Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

Morguard’s fourth quarter Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Research report finds conditions in the Canadian commercial real estate market were generally positive during the final three months of 2019. Investment activity remained brisk, with buyers looking to increase their holdings in the Canadian market. Industrial, office and multi-suite residential rental properties were most popular with investors. Resource-driven markets continued to falter, although signs of optimism were also reported. Leasing market fundamentals strengthened in the office and industrial sectors, with vacancy generally holding at the cycle-low. Multi-suite rental market conditions were also the strongest of the current cycle, while retail leasing performance remained relatively weak. Looking to the balance of 2020 and 2021, investment and leasing market fundamentals were expected to steadily improve, given a moderately healthy economic outlook. However at press time, several risks to the outlook continued to unfold including the Coronavirus, ongoing trade disputes and several geopolitical events.

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2019 Q3 Update - Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

Morguard’s third quarter Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Research report finds that the Canadian commercial real estate market was largely stable due in part by investor confidence from attractive yields and healthy income amidst a backdrop of heightened demand in key city centres. The retail sector vacancy stabilized while a focus on specific market segments continued to evolve as a result of reinvestment and as redevelopments materialized. Multi-suite residential rental sector performed well due to positive rental demand from ongoing demographic trends and strong economic growth. Overall, investment performance for all asset classes demonstrated consistency through the balance of this year and into 2020 and is expected to continue.  

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2019 Q2 Update - Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

An increased pace of Canadian commercial investment property sales and record-high levels in the multi-suite residential sector defined the second quarter of 2019, according to Morguard’s Q2 Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report. The multi-suite residential rental sector was again the strongest contributor to the increase in transaction activity, with investment groups looked to increase their exposure in sectors that had performed relatively well during times of economic weakness. The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the overnight rate in July helped to maintain investor activity and appetite for real estate across property asset classes.

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2019 Q1 Update - Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

Healthy demand is expected to keep availability near record lows across much of Canada’s commercial real estate market, according to Morguard’s first quarter Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals report. The performance of the multi-suite residential, industrial and office sectors have kept them as favourites of investors as uncertainty in global economic dynamics seems to have had little impact on the Canadian commercial real estate business. While an uptick in new construction is welcome news for tenants searching for available office space, it will be some time before there is significant relief.

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2019 Canadian Economic Outlook and Market Fundamentals Report 

In the 2019 Canadian Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals report, Morguard predicts another year of robust commercial real estate investment activity in Canada, with healthy demand for quality assets. Over the last 18 months, investors placed capital into the market with confidence, resulting in record-high transaction volume. Commercial property investment shows no signs of slowing as investors continue to show interest in core properties with strong tenant profiles across Canada’s major markets – especially as density and repositioning continue to shape the real estate landscape. Morguard's report covers commercial, industrial, multi-suite residential and retail markets. It is published yearly, with quarterly updates to the report. Morguard develops these reports based on our experience in property management, Canadian REITs and property investment.

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